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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Post-tropical Depression 2 (ex-batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220208134228.CC2D11C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 13:42:28 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 081246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 54/2/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.5 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 610 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SW: 350 NW: 280

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 31.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 610 SW: 435 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 165

24H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 610 SW: 455 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 295 NW: 195

36H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 150 NW: 185

48H: 2022/02/10 12 UTC: 37.9 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 155

60H: 2022/02/11 00 UTC: 41.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 730 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 85

72H: 2022/02/11 12 UTC: 45.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 295 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/12 12 UTC: 51.9 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 305 SW: 140 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 85 NW: 110


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

THE SYSTEM SHEAR PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OR EVEN ACCENTUATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR GIVEN FOR 25/30 KT BY THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE ANIMATION OF
THE LAST MIMIC-TPW IMAGES SHOW THAT DRY AIR IS NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND STARTS TO GRADUALLY SURROUND THE LLC. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS LOGICALLY WIDENED DURING THE LAST SIX
HOURS, WITH A CENTER THAT REMAINS EXPOSED AND MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND
ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGES. AS FOR THE CONVECTION, WHICH WAS
REPORTED THIS MORNING QUITE FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, IT HAS
COMPLETELY COLLAPSED SINCE THEN, NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE WINDSHEAR
BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE LOSS OF
SYMMETRY OF THE WINDS OBSERVED ON THE 0558Z ASCAT-C SWATH, IN A
CONTEXT OF RAPID RETURN OF THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND THE PHASES
DIAGRAMS ANALYSIS (MOE), THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CATEGORIZED AS A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BATSIRAI AT 12Z.

EX-BATSIRAI WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE WITH THE
UPWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EX-BATSIRAI
SHOULD ACCELERATE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM TOMORROW AND
FINALLY DISAPPEAR IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK WITHIN A LARGE
SURFACE TROUGH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

FROM TONIGHT, WITH THE UPWELLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE LACK OF
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR ALOFT, EX-BATSIRAI WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO RECONSTITUTE A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR ITS CENTER.

THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING PRODUCED BY RSMC ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION, REFER TO METAREA VII SHIPPING BULLETINS (FQIO25).=

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