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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220209073858.B63421C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2022 07:38:58 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 090600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090738 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOVI CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 169.0E AT
090600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DOVI MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT 

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING
TO WRAP ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29
DEGREE CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY
MOVE IT SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. 
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
GIVES DT OF 3.0.
PT AND MET AGREE. THUS FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 20.5S 168.6E MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 21.7S 167.7E MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 23.3S 166.7E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 25.9S 166.1E MOV SSW AT 09KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DOVI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400UTC.


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