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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2022 07:45:30 +0000
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063 
AXAU21 ABRF 090745
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0745 UTC 09/02/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.1S
Longitude: 168.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south (170 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  09/1200: 20.5S 168.7E:     045 (085):  040  (075):  982
+12:  09/1800: 21.0S 168.3E:     060 (105):  040  (075):  982
+18:  10/0000: 21.6S 167.9E:     065 (115):  040  (075):  982
+24:  10/0600: 22.1S 167.4E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  983
+36:  10/1800: 23.5S 166.3E:     085 (155):  045  (085):  980
+48:  11/0600: 25.6S 165.5E:     105 (200):  050  (095):  976
+60:  11/1800: 29.2S 165.2E:     160 (295):  050  (095):  974
+72:  12/0600: 32.8S 166.2E:     190 (350):  050  (095):  970
+96:  13/0600: 36.4S 171.2E:     295 (550):  045  (085):  971
+120: 14/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Dovi was named by Nadi TCWC at 06Z 9 February. 

For the Bureau of Meteorology analysis Dovi was located using recent microwave
and scatterometer passes and animated VIS imagery. There is also surface
observations to the north and east of the LLCC, confidence in the position is
good. VIS imagery has shown persistent curved banding, a wrap of about 0.4 has
been obtained giving a DT of 2.5. Using a change over 24 hours of D- MET/PAT is
also 2.5 so FT/CI is 2.5/2.5. Intensity is set at 35 knots but with gales
confined to the eastern quadrants at present. Despite Nadi TCWC naming the
system at 06Z, it does not adhere to the definition of a tropical cyclone used
by the Australian TCWC of gales wrapping more than half way round the system.
ADT has commenced and we are in good agreement at present with CIMSS ADT at 37
knot 1-minute winds. SATCON has a 1-minute wind of 43 knots.

The environment is broadly favourable for development with warm SSTs and good
upper divergence and outflow to the north. CIMSS analyses show about 15 knots
of northeast shear over the system at present. An approaching upper trough from
the southwest may increase outflow in southern channels during Thursday and
Friday and models favour development in the 1-2 day time frame as the system
travels south. 

There is good agreement between the models about the likely movement of Dovi.
At present steering is weak but during the next 6-12 hours the system is
expected to begin to move to the south southwest under the influence of the
mid-level ridge to the southeast and the approaching trough to the west. During
Friday the mid-level trough to the west is likely to become the dominant
steering mechanism and 18U will be steered rapidly to the south and then south
southeast. During Friday and Saturday it is likely the system will be
experiencing increasing shear and may undergo extra-tropical transition as it
heads towards New Zealand.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1330 UTC.


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