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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Part 1 Of 2 
Message-ID: <20220210015651.5EC7D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 01:56:51 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 100000
PART 1 OF 2
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 100128 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOVI CENTRE 986HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1S 168.9E AT
100000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DOVI MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS. 
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                            WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                            WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD WITH
PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LOWER
SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
WITH 0.7/0.75 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVES DT OF 3.0, MET=3.5 AND
PT=3.0 . THUS FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 22.5S 167.7E MOV SW AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 24.6S 166.8E MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 27.6S 166.5E MOV SSW AT 11 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 31.2S 167.0E MOV S AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


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