Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220210073339.8B8341C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 07:33:39 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1644478425-26211-270"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1644478425-26211-270
Content-Type: text/plain


132 
AXAU21 ABRF 100733
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0733 UTC 10/02/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 22.2S
Longitude: 168.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: south (189 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 977 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  10/1200: 22.8S 167.4E:     045 (085):  055  (100):  975
+12:  10/1800: 23.6S 166.8E:     055 (105):  060  (110):  972
+18:  11/0000: 24.6S 166.2E:     060 (105):  060  (110):  972
+24:  11/0600: 26.2S 166.0E:     055 (100):  060  (110):  972
+36:  11/1800: 30.0S 165.9E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  977
+48:  12/0600: 33.7S 166.9E:     080 (150):  050  (095):  979
+60:  12/1800:             :              :            :     
+72:  13/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  14/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 15/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located using VIS imagery and animation. Microwave
scatterometer passes and nearby surface observations, including New Caledonia
radar. Confidence in the position is good. 

Cyclone has shown improved organisation in the past 24 hours. Deep convection
has persisting near the centre against the diurnal cycle and vicinity of land.
Dvorak intensity is based on log10 wrap of 0.85 giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PT
agrees. SATCON is 64 knots, AiDT is 72 knots, CMISS ADT =3.5, NOAA ADT = 4.3.
  
The environment will remain favourable for further development in the short
term with warm SSTs, low-moderate shear and an outflow channel to the south.
There is evidence of lack of deep moisture supply into the system. This may
become the main reason for inhibiting development as it moves south of New
Caledonia. In addition, SST's drop below 28C to the south as well. The system
is likely to reach a high end category 2 intensity as a tropical system, before
wind asymmetries begin to increase as it moves south of Norfolk Island. Model
phase guidance indicate it may maintain as a weakening warm core system even
well to the south of Norfolk Island. 

The system has curved towards the southwest during the day, but its expected to
resume a general southwards movement tonight and into Friday. There's strong
agreement amongst deterministic and ensemble models for a southwards steering
influenced by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean and an
approaching upper trough from the west. Hence, the confidence in the forecast
track and narrow confidence areas indicating the system to pass close to the
west of Norfolk Island. Later, the track is expected to curve southeast,
towards New Zealand's north island.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1330 UTC.


------------=_1644478425-26211-270
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1644478425-26211-270--