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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Part 1 Of 2 
Message-ID: <20220210083250.26A271C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 08:32:50 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 100600
PART 1 OF 2
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 100731 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOVI CENTRE 981HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 167.9E AT
100600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DOVI MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS. 
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                            WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                            WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                            WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                            WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD
WITH PRIMARY BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LOWER SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVES DT
OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS FT BASED ON DT YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 24.0S 166.8E MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


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