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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220210103935.516D61C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 10:39:35 +0000
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080 
AWIO20 FMEE 101037

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/10 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin has two branches of Monsoon Thalweg (MT) undulating between 12 and 16oS east of 68E, and between 14S and 24S east of 68E. This is due to the circulation of the CLIFF filling low currently evolving south of Rodrigues Island and which noises the general large-scale circulation over the basin.

Convective activity is mainly detected in the slowing of the monsoon flow at the northern edge of the TM branches, as well as in the low-level convergence axis of the monsoon flow south of the Comoros archipelago.

Post-tropical depression EX-BATSIRAI :

Position at 1000UTC: 39.0oS / 51.10oE

Movement: Southeast at 17 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 35 kt

Minimum central pressure : 986 hPa

This system is no longer monitored by Reunion RSMC. For further information, please refer to METAREA VII shipping bulletins (FQIO25).

Filling low CLIFF :

Position at 1000UTC: 24.3oS / 63.2oE

Movement : West at 9 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min: 25 kt in the southern semicircle, reaching locally 30kt by gradient effect.

Minimum central pressure : 1004 hPa

At the end of the week, with the evacuation of the remnants of CLIFF westward towards Madagascar, the subtropical ridge will end up being gradually reconstituted with the return of a better channeled trade wind over the northeast half of the basin. This pattern will lead to the establishment of a better defined TM, undulating towards 13oS, east of 60oE, and where the monsoon flow and trade winds will converge more effectively, within a warm and unstable AM.

In addition, wave activity should favor low-level vorticity at the end of the week following the arrival of an active MJO phase combined with a probable crossing between an equatorial Rossby wave and a Kelvin wave.

Deterministic and ensemble models begin to suggest at the end of the week two areas of vorticity east of 75E, with a low risk of tropical storm formation, becoming moderate at the end of the period. A second suspicious area to the north-east of the Mascarene Islands appears in the models with a low to moderate risk on Monday, becoming moderate to significant on Tuesday.

There is a low risk of tropical storm formation over the extreme east of the basin, within two areas. This risk becomes moderate over the northeast of St. Brandon at the end of the weekend, and moderate to significant Monday and Tuesday.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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