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Subject: Australia
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Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 13:47:08 +0000
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387=20
AXAU21 ABRF 101346
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1339 UTC 10/02/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 23.0S
Longitude: 166.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (234 deg)
Speed of Movement: 14 knots (25 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 350 nm (650 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  10/1800: 23.8S 166.1E:     035 (070):  065  (120):  974
+12:  11/0000: 25.1S 165.8E:     045 (085):  065  (120):  974
+18:  11/0600: 26.5S 165.6E:     050 (095):  065  (120):  975
+24:  11/1200: 28.4S 165.5E:     060 (110):  065  (120):  974
+36:  12/0000: 32.8S 165.7E:     090 (165):  060  (110):  973
+48:  12/1200: 35.6S 168.3E:     095 (180):  055  (100):  970
+60:  13/0000:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+72:  13/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+96:  14/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+120: 15/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located using Noumea radar and IR imagery. Confid=
ence
in the position is good.=20=20

Dovi continues to develop in a favourable environment. Deep convection has
wrapped around the centre and a ragged eye has formed. Dvorak: Eye pattern
yields DT of 4.0 (DG with ann OW eye surrounded by MG, -0.5 adjustment for
ragged eye). Curved band also yields 4.0 (wrap of 0.8-0.9, with a +0.5
adjustment for a white or colder band). MET is 3.5 based on D trend, with a=
 PAT
adjusted to 4.0. FT/CI =3D 4.0. Intensity set at 60 knots, consistent with =
an
ASCAT-C pass showing 50-55 knots in the eastern semicircle, and an observed=
 83
knots gust at Ille des Pins in the eastern eye wall. SATCON is 72 knots, Ai=
DT
is 72 knots, CMISS ADT =3D4.5, Nesdis ADT =3D 3.6.=20

The environment will remain favourable for further development in the short
term with warm SSTs, low-moderate shear, strong upper divergence and an out=
flow
channel to the south. There is evidence of a lack of deep moisture supply i=
nto
the system, which may start to inhibit development as it moves south of New
Caledonia. However, based on current intensity and short term development
potential, the forecast is now for Dovi to reach category 3 intensity. As it
moves south of Norfolk Island, it is likely to interact with an upper troug=
h to
the west, and may transition into a cool-cored system. Gale and storm radii=
 may
expand as it goes through this process=20

The system has been moving towards the southwest. There is extremely strong
agreement amongst deterministic and ensemble models for a southwards steeri=
ng
from Friday influenced by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean =
and
an approaching upper trough from the west. Hence, the confidence in the
forecast track and narrow confidence areas indicating the system to pass to=
 the
west of Norfolk Island. This forecast track is truncated at 48 hours as the
system loses its tropical characteristics, but it is likely to continue to =
move
towards the North Island of New Zealand. Refer to
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home__;!!DZ=
3fjg!rdVjKxc7uE5GY33BnKWTrUYHsMrrllF3ZLyY2NPsihoKwQLtmqvS2j7MykCMyeqfl0GxqQ=
kc$  for more information.=20

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
=3D=3D
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1930 UTC.


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