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To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
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Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 17:58:12 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.67 106.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 104.1E, APPROXIMATELY 429NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 101147Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE
NEAR-TERM AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYLCONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN


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