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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220210200122.23F951C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 20:01:22 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 101800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 102000 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DOVI CENTRE 960HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8S
166.3E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DOVI MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 85 KNOTS. 


EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 105 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 155 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER LLCC WITH RAGGED ELONGATED
EYE DISCERNABLE ON HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH. TC DOVI STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0 WITH NO ADJUSTMENT AND BANDING. MET=4.5 AND
PT=4.5. THUS FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 26.5S 165.6E MOV SSW AT 14 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 30.1S 165.7E MOV S AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 33.6S 167.1E MOV S AT 16 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 36.2S 170.0E MOV SSE AT 16 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON DOVI.


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