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Subject: Australia
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Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 01:24:42 +0000
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645=20
AXAU21 ABRF 110124
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 11/02/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 25.1S
Longitude: 166.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (192 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h)
Central Pressure: 951 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/0600: 26.7S 166.1E:     030 (055):  075  (140):  960
+12:  11/1200: 28.7S 166.0E:     040 (075):  070  (130):  964
+18:  11/1800: 31.0S 165.9E:     050 (090):  060  (110):  970
+24:  12/0000: 33.1S 166.1E:     060 (110):  055  (100):  972
+36:  12/1200: 35.7S 168.7E:     065 (120):  055  (100):  968
+48:  13/0000:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+60:  13/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+72:  14/0000:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+96:  15/0000:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+120: 16/0000:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Dovi was located using Noumea radar and IR satellite
imagery. Confidence in the position is good.=20=20

Dovi has maintained a large, somewhat ragged eye during the past 6 hours.
Dvorak analysis is based on an eye pattern. DT is 4.5 (MG surround with WMG=
/LG
eye, though the +0.5 eye adjustment was not applied due to the large (50 nmi
diameter) eye). MET 4.5 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, with no PAT adjustment.
Final T and CI are 4.5.=20

Intensity is maintained at 65 knots (10 minute mean). This is below most
objective estimates: SATCON and AiDT are 90 knots,  CMISS ADT is 105 knots,
while NESDIS ADT is 65 knots (all 1 minute means).=20

Dovi lies under a diffluent upper wind pattern with good upper outflow to t=
he
south. Deep layer wind shear is currently analysed as low to moderate (16 k=
not
easterly), but is expected to increase later today as the system moves clos=
er
to the upper trough to the southwest. Sea surface temperatures are currently
There is evidence of a lack of deep moisture supply into the system, which =
may
start to inhibit development as it moves south of New Caledonia. Based on t=
hese
factors, Dovi is forecast to maintain its category 3 intensity for roughly =
the
next 18 to 24 hours. Beyond that, as it moves south of Norfolk Island, it is
likely to interact with an upper trough to the west, and ultimately transit=
ion
into an extra-tropical system. Gale and storm radii may expand as it goes
through this process=20

The system has been moving towards the south-southwest. During today, a
mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean and an approaching upper tro=
ugh
from the west will steer the system to the south. This robust steering patt=
ern
has led to extremely strong agreement amongst deterministic and ensemble mo=
dels
for a southwards track. Hence, the confidence in the forecast track and nar=
row
confidence areas indicating the system to pass to the west of Norfolk Islan=
d.
This forecast track is truncated at 48 hours as the system loses its tropic=
al
characteristics, but it is likely to continue to move towards the North Isl=
and
of New Zealand. Refer to https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.metservice=
.com/warnings/home__;!!DZ3fjg!svNkcOswH39FakelvsXQIPENChbwT-5k2zv6UpyU8j7mr=
idJB1fei-LFP8v2rNoJMS4HMR73$  for more
information.=20

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
=3D=3D
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0730 UTC.


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