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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220211022401.9CC471C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 02:24:01 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 110223
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the Papagayo region at 10N86W
to 05N94W. The ITCZ continues 05N94W to 10N111W, then resumes 
near 10N117W to 09N120W to 11N132W. No significant convection 
along the trough and ITCZ is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the northern Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong N winds are developing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this evening. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 
4 to 6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and 1 to 3 ft 
elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sat, increasing to gale force Sat night 
through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds over the 
northern Gulf of California will diminish tonight. Fresh to 
strong winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California and 
offshore of Baja California Norte Tue night as a cold front moves
through the region. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds off Cabo Corrientes this 
weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate
winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the
offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Moderate to 
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through 
early next week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. 
Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador 
Sun night through early next week, peaking around 12 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area with a ridge 
extending SE into the waters north of 20N. A 1011 mb low 
pressure is centered near 13N135.5W with surface trough 
extending from 17N134W through the low to 09N136W. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong 
winds from 13N to 20N between 130W and 138W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft 
over this area. A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 13N114.5W
with moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft in the vicinity. Gentle to 
moderate winds are in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Light to gentle 
winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ, with seas in 
the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, the low pressure areas and trough will 
gradually dissipate through the end of the week allowing for 
associated winds and seas to diminish and subside. Fairly 
tranquil marine conditions will then prevail across the open 
waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten north of 
the ITCZ Sun night, with trades increasing to moderate to fresh. 
A cold front may drop south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing
winds and seas over the north central waters toward mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky


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