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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220211030848.9620F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 03:08:48 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 110330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/110330Z-111800ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.67 106.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 104.1E, APPROXIMATELY 429NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 101147Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL,
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LOW PROBABILITY, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
   (2)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.0S 62.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 63.3E, APPROXIMATELY 621NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER AN OBSCURED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND AS
SUCH THE INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 102358Z SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS
FURTHER SUPPORT THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE AREA
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), WEAK
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
AS FOR THE DYNAMIC MODELS, ECMWF HAS SHOWN UNUSUAL AGGRESSION IN THE
GENESIS OF 94S AND IN PARTICULAR ECMWF HAS OUTPACED GFS IN REGARD TO
THE NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE. HOWEVER RECENTLY GFS HAS JOINED
THE CONVERSATION, ACCELERATED THE GENESIS TIMELINE FOR 94S TO BE IN
MORE AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48-
72 HOURS. BE THAT AS IT MAY, DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN 94S
POSITION, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS PUT THIS SYSTEM IN HOT WATER WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN
THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO LOW//
NNNN


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