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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 07:01:01 +0000
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062=20
AXAU21 ABRF 110700
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 11/02/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 26.6S
Longitude: 166.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 15 knots (28 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 956 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/1200: 28.4S 165.9E:     035 (065):  075  (140):  960
+12:  11/1800: 30.4S 165.9E:     050 (090):  070  (130):  964
+18:  12/0000: 32.5S 166.2E:     055 (105):  060  (110):  969
+24:  12/0600: 34.0S 167.3E:     060 (110):  055  (100):  971
+36:  12/1800: 36.2S 171.0E:     070 (130):  055  (100):  968
+48:  13/0600:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+60:  13/1800:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+72:  14/0600:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+96:  15/0600:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+120: 16/0600:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi has maintained category 3 intensity at 80 knots
[10 minute].=20
Dovi was located using satellite imagery. Confidence in the position is high
given the eye and recent microwave imagery [SSMIS at 05:44]. Dovi has
maintained a somewhat ragged eye during the past 12 hours, but it has reduc=
ed
slightly in diameter over the past 6 hours. Using an eye pattern, Dvorak DT=
 was
5.0 averaged over the past 3 hours. MET 4.5 based on a 24 hour D trend. FT/=
CI
are 5.0. Intensity is set at 80 knots.=20

Objective guidance maintains a higher intensity. CIMSS ADT is yielding 112
knots, NESDIS ADT 102 knots, AiDT 105 knots [all 1 minute mean]. SATCON has=
 not
updated since 2240UTC.=20

Dovi lies under a diffluent upper wind pattern with good upper outflow to t=
he
south. Deep layer wind shear is currently analysed as low (CIMSS 5 knot
easterly), but is expected to increase later today as the system moves clos=
er
to the upper trough to the southwest.=20

Sea surface temperatures are currently ~26C, with the track taking Dovi over
cooler waters tonight. Based on these factors, Dovi should weaken slowly in=
 the
short term. Dovi is expected to maintain category 3 intensity for the next =
12
to 18 hours. Beyond that, as it moves south of Norfolk Island, it is likely=
 to
interact with an upper trough to the west, and ultimately transition into an
extra-tropical system. Gale and storm radii may expand as it goes through t=
his
process=20

The system has been moving towards the south, steered by a mid-level ridge =
over
the eastern Pacific Ocean and an approaching upper trough from the west. Th=
is
robust steering pattern has led to extremely strong agreement amongst
deterministic and ensemble models for a southwards track. Hence, the confid=
ence
in the forecast track and narrow confidence areas indicating the system to =
pass
to the west of Norfolk Island. This forecast track is truncated at 36 hours=
 as
the system loses its tropical characteristics, but it is likely to continue=
 to
move towards the North Island of New Zealand. Refer to
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home__;!!DZ=
3fjg!pSEXoh6UCsET0_MvBvBCryb4-0Nq1Z7FQ_ib_QCq1GjmGENSaozPRs_8MtbG-ix4chLzKl=
82$  for more information.=20

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
=3D=3D
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1330 UTC.


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