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Subject: Australia
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Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 13:21:22 +0000
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460=20
AXAU21 ABRF 111308
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1308 UTC 11/02/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 28.8S
Longitude: 166.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 22 knots (41 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Central Pressure: 961 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/1800: 31.2S 166.0E:     035 (070):  065  (120):  968
+12:  12/0000: 33.3S 166.3E:     050 (090):  060  (110):  970
+18:  12/0600: 34.7S 167.7E:     055 (105):  060  (110):  970
+24:  12/1200: 35.9S 169.3E:     065 (120):  060  (110):  970
+36:  13/0000:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+48:  13/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+60:  14/0000:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+72:  14/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+96:  15/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+120: 16/1200:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi is weakening as it rapidly tracks south with t=
he
loss of the southern eye wall on IR imagery.=20=20
=20
Intensity estimate reduced to 75kn. This is lower than subjective Dvorak of
80kn based on CI of 5.0, constrained to be held while the FT has fallen to =
4.0
based on recent DT estimates of 3.5 using curved band pattern (0.8 wrap).
Objective estimates vary: ADT remains higher at 105kn (1min) based on CI=3D=
5.6
although raw T nos. have plummeted to below 2.5, while AiDT has fallen fast=
er
to 86kn (1min) equivalent to 75kn (10min). SATCON N/A.=20

The wind structure is highly asymmetric (larger east of the centre) as the
system moves south at 20kn, as shown on HY2C (0619UTC), SMOS 0643UTC, HY2C
0705UTC and particularly on the recent ASCAT-B at 1120UTC, while microwave
shows the strongest convection east of the centre. Norfolk Is is reporting =
near
gales with peak gust of 50kn at 1151UTC.=20=20

The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific O=
cean
and an approaching upper trough from the west with high confidence based on
strong agreement amongst the range of models.=20=20

Although Dovi is being favoured by a low wind shear environment and strong
upper level outflow to the south, it is now moving over water temperatures =
less
than 25C.=20=20

The structure is set to reorganise with a strong to gale force synoptic
southerly flow to the west forecast to merge with the circulation within +1=
2h
resulting in large region of gales about the circulation. This is coincident
with the circulation transitioning into a sub-tropical system and under the
influence of an upper level trough from the west. This should ensure that t=
he
intensity remains higher than tropical satellite metrics.=20=20

The forecast track is truncated at 24 hours as the system loses its tropical
characteristics, but it is likely to continue to move towards the North Isl=
and
of New Zealand. Refer to https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.metservice=
.com/warnings/home__;!!DZ3fjg!pH5AbcCZx4mRgzeLUO1vxNU_T4bitVOStKUXWhN80WOn6=
QyFO1zOJ0EmXcdcgM_TXe3ZCAeg$  for more
information.=20

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
=3D=3D
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1930 UTC.


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