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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220211154853.A27C51C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 15:48:53 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 111548
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds
will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun
evening. Strong high pressure will surge down the eastern slopes
of Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico
late in the weekend, causing northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec to increase to gale-force Sun night after midnight.
Winds are currently forecast to peak around 45 kt Sun morning
through Mon morning. There is a non-zero chance that winds could
reach storm force Mon night. Gale-force winds will persist into
Wed morning before diminishing as the pressure gradient finally
relaxes. Seas will peak around 20 ft by Mon morning, while seas
of 8 ft or greater manage to propagate well away from the source
region to beyond 10N100W. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!ulU0nwWcECiOWqmbbno3n6KXXhccEi3qCpJV88pFe_eazpuFk-Npj6VSJzkaW=
ae4gl224RZJ$  for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 08N89W to 07N99W, where=20
overnight scatterometer indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 09N114W. It resumes at 09N118W to 07N130W and to beyond=20
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 240 nm S of the trough between 77W-79W, and within=20
60 nm S of the trough between 80W-81W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are blowing across the Gulf of
California. Elsewhere, gentle to light winds prevail. Seas are 5
to 7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere=20
over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sat, increasing to gale force late Sat=20
night through early next week. Fresh to strong winds are=20
possible in the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja=20
California Norte Tue night as a cold front moves through the=20
region. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere, reaching=20
moderate speeds off Cabo Corrientes this weekend.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered moderate to isolated strong is offshore Colombia as=20
described above under ITCZ/MONSOON section. Fresh to strong=20
offshore winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across=20
the offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Moderate to=20
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through=20
early next week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.=20
Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador=20
Sun night through early next week, peaking around 15 ft near
11N96W early Mon morning.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of 20N. A surface=20
trough is analyzed over the west-central waters from near
18N136W to 09N139W. The pressure gradient between these features
is supporting fresh to strong winds from roughly 12N to 17N=20
between 130W and 137W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over this area.=20
Another surface trough is along the ITCZ, extending from 14N114W=20
to 10N115W with moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft in the vicinity.=20
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Gentle to=20
moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ, with seas of 5 to
7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ, with=20
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, the low pressure areas and trough will=20
gradually dissipate through tonight allowing for associated=20
winds and seas to diminish and subside. Fairly tranquil marine=20
conditions will then remain across the open waters through Sun.=20
The pressure gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night,=20
with trades increasing to moderate to fresh. A cold front may=20
drop south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and seas=20
over the north-central waters toward mid-week.

$$
Aguirre


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