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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 15:58:58 +0000
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669=20
AXAU21 ABRF 111558
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1557 UTC 11/02/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1500 UTC
Latitude: 30.1S
Longitude: 166.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 24 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/2100: 32.4S 166.2E:     035 (070):  060  (115):  969
+12:  12/0300: 34.1S 167.0E:     050 (090):  060  (110):  970
+18:  12/0900: 35.4S 168.5E:     055 (105):  060  (110):  970
+24:  12/1500:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+36:  13/0300:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+48:  13/1500:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+60:  14/0300:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+72:  14/1500:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+96:  15/1500:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
+120: 16/1500:             :              :            :=20=20=20=20=20
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi is weakening as it rapidly tracks south with t=
he
loss of the southern eye wall on IR imagery.=20=20
=20
Intensity estimate reduced to 70kn. Dvorak DT becoming more difficult to
classify although curved band pattern 0.5-0.8 (3h average).  FT now 3.5, CI
held higher at 4.5. Objective estimates vary: ADT remains higher at 82kn (1=
min)
based on CI=3D4.7 which is rapidly reducing, while AiDT has fallen faster t=
o 77kn
(1min) equivalent to 70kn (10min). SATCON N/A.=20

The wind structure is highly asymmetric (larger east of the centre) as the
system moves south at 22kn, as shown on scatterometry including ASCAT-B at
1120UTC, while microwave shows the strongest convection east of the centre.=
=20

The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific O=
cean
and an approaching upper trough from the west with high confidence based on
strong agreement amongst the range of models.=20=20

Although Dovi is being favoured by a low wind shear environment and strong
upper level outflow to the south, it is now moving over water temperatures =
less
than 25C.=20=20

The structure is reorganising with a strong to gale force synoptic southerly
flow to the west forecast to merge with the circulation within +6h resultin=
g in
large region of gales about the circulation. This is coincident with the
circulation transitioning into a sub-tropical system under the influence of=
 an
upper level trough from the west. This should ensure that the intensity rem=
ains
higher than tropical satellite metrics.=20=20

The forecast track is truncated as the system loses its tropical
characteristics, but it is likely to continue to move towards the North Isl=
and
of New Zealand.=20

These bulletins will no longer be provided as Norfolk Island no longer is
expecting gales.

Refer to https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.metservice.com/warnings/ho=
me__;!!DZ3fjg!s-FFUqYV-njsa9kfEL-__RZi9JMzR3v7QAyJcQ6JfspiqxoxgbpW6iwSeYGNm=
hodaLTCTkX7$  for more information.=20

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
=3D=3D
No further bulletins will be issued for this system.


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