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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220211193428.170861C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 19:34:28 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/112000Z-121800ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.4S 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111130Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL,
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
   (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 63.1E, APPROXIMATELY 563NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS 94S HAS
REMAINED PRIMARLY QUASI-STATIONARY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A BULLSEYE 111545Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, WITH A STRONG FEEDER BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHER
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLC. UNFORTUNATELY, NO ASCAT DATA WAS AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CURRENTLY, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), LOW - MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CURRENT DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OF 94S. ECMWF IS TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE
APPROACH WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF 94S AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN


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