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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone 11p (dovi) Warning Nr 012// 
Message-ID: <20220211210915.83F291C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 21:09:15 +0000
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WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DOVI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DOVI) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 31.4S 166.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.4S 166.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 35.4S 168.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 38.1S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 32.4S 166.6E.
11FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546
NM NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 24
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P IS NEARING COMPLETION OF EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL VORTEX. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW PRIMARILY CONSTRAINED TO THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. AN 111922Z GMI 37 GHZ PASS REFLECTS THE
TRANSITION TO THE ASYMMETRIC EXTRA-TROPICAL STRUCTURE, AND PROVIDES
GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION IN ADDITION TO AGENCY FIXES.
THE INITAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED THE PGTW FINAL-
T OF T3.5. THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ADT AND SATCON VALUES, TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE RAPID WEAKENING TAKING PLACE. DOVI IS TRACKING
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE GRADIENT FLOW IS
RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 50-PLUS KNOT UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SURFACE FLOW OF EQUAL
MAGNITUDE. TC 11P WILL COMPLETE ETT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE TO ROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ISLAND OF NEW
ZEALAND, WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 27 FEET.
//
NNNN


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