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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220211215624.804A41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 21:56:24 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 112156
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have diminished to mainly fresh speeds. These winds=20
become moderate west to northwest winds this evening, then
moderate to fresh north winds Sat and fresh to strong Sat night.
Strong high pressure will surge down the eastern slopes of=20
Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico
during the weekend leading to the fresh to strong north=20
increasing to gale-force late Sat night. These Winds are=20
forecast to peak to 45 kt Sun morning into early Sat afternoon,=20
then increase to storm force through Sun night, diminishing back
to strong gale-force late Sun night. Gale-force winds are=20
forecast to continue into Tue night, with seas slowly subsiding=20
as the pressure gradient finally relaxes. Seas will peak to=20
around 20 ft Sun night into Mon morning, while seas of 8 ft or=20
greater manage to propagate well away from the source region to=20
near 09N107W by Mon evening. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!r3hHpsUHvPsNvNYCvCvklxS-cDRxBfrv_PzzTxFWseW8l2qiXRBqXYtfFYtbh=
BvYLYU0bQ2G$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N90W to 07N99W, where=20
overnight scatterometer indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 09N114W. It resumes at 09N118W to 07N130W and to beyond=20
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is=20
within 180 nm south of the trough between 78W-80W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

The earlier observed fresh to strong northerly winds over the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to mainly fresh winds per=20
latest ASCAT data pass over that part of the area. Gentle winds=20
are over the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, gentle to light winds
prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well
as elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico due to a south to=20
southwest swell. Lower seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over he Gulf of=20
California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh north winds will develop in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat, increasing to fresh to strong Sat
night. These winds will increase to gale-force late Sat night and=20
to storm force through Sun night, then diminish back to strong=20
gale-force late Sun night. Gale-force winds are forecast to=20
continue into Tue night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in=20
the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California=20
Norte Tue night as a cold front moves through the region. Light=20
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds=20
off Cabo Corrientes this weekend.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered moderate to isolated strong is offshore Colombia as=20
described above under ITCZ/MONSOON section. Fresh to strong=20
offshore winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across=20
the offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Moderate to=20
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through=20
early next week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.=20
Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador=20
Sun night through early next week, peaking around 15 ft near
11N96W early Mon morning.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of 20N. A surface=20
trough is analyzed over the west-central waters from near
18N136W to 09N139W. The pressure gradient between these features
is supporting fresh to strong winds from roughly 12N to 17N=20
between 130W and 137W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over this area.=20
Another surface trough is along the ITCZ, extending from 14N114W=20
to 10N115W with moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft in the vicinity.=20
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Gentle to=20
moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ, with seas of 5 to
7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ, with=20
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, the low pressure areas and trough will=20
gradually dissipate through tonight allowing for associated=20
winds and seas to diminish and subside. Fairly tranquil marine=20
conditions will then remain across the open waters through Sun.=20
The pressure gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night,=20
with trades increasing to moderate to fresh. A cold front may=20
drop south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and seas=20
over the north-central waters toward mid-week.

$$
Aguirre


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