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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220212080653.4B2841C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2022 08:06:53 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 120806
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Moderate to fresh northerly=20
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force this
evening as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will further=20
increase to storm-force Sun evening through around midnight, with
gale-force then persisting into early Wed. These winds will=20
result in very large seas, up to 20 ft, with the area of seas of=20
8 ft or greater propagating well southwest of the source region.=20
Seas will gradually subside early next week.
Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!tDGQvsZkxH5SHYPFt717x6vvGadYSkrKdDecwabiNSIXZdqkTlrDAGx-IcW_3=
y11XdC66uW2$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the Papagayo region at 10N86W
to 06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 09N112W, then
resumes west of a surface trough from 10N117W to 09N130W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N
between 92W and 103W, and also from 10N to 14N between 118W and=20
128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the waters of
Mexico, except moderate to fresh in the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail, except 3 ft or less in=20
the Gulf of California. Isolated to scattered showers are moving=20
across southern Mexico from the southwest.

For the forecast, other than the developing storm warning in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in the=20
northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Norte
Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the=20
region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja=20
California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere,=20
reaching moderate speeds off Cabo Corrientes this weekend, and=20
then again by the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Isolated to scattered moderate convection continues offshore of
Colombia and Panama due to a nearby surface trough and
southeasterly flow from the deep tropics. Fresh to strong=20
offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero=20
Peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in=20
the 4 to 6 ft range across the offshore waters, except 5 to 7 ft=20
in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week.=20
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each=20
night through early next week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event will propagate into the=20
waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun night through=20
early next week, with wave heights peaking around 16 ft near=20
11N96W early Mon morning. Winds of fresh to near gale force will=20
spill into the same area of seas, highest near 12N95W. Light to=20
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. A couple=20
of weakening surface troughs are along the ITCZ, the western one=20
extending from 17N133W to 09N135W, and the eastern one=20
extending from 17N110W to 10N115W. Isolated to scattered=20
showers are possible near both troughs. Gentle to moderate winds=20
dominate the open waters, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed=20
long period SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, the surface troughs along the ITCZ will
gradually dissipate today. Fairly tranquil marine conditions=20
will then remain across the open waters through Sun. The pressure
gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night, with trades=20
increasing to moderate to fresh, then further increasing to fresh
to strong in the west-central waters early Tue through Wed as=20
another surface trough along the ITCZ moves into the ridge. A=20
cold front may drop south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing=20
winds and seas over the north- central waters toward mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky


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