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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2022 12:08:37 +0000
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558 
AWIO20 FMEE 121202

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/12 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 FMEE 001/04 to be issued at 12UTC on Tropical Disturbance 04-20212022.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin has a monsoon trough (MT) configuration undulating between 10 and 12oS east of 55E. Within this TM, three circulations (including one east of our area of responsibility) are visible on satellite images: the Tropical Disturbance No. 4, a circulation east of Diego Garcia and a circulation south of the Cocos. The convective activity is mainly located on the equatorial side of the TM and around these centers of action. In addition, over the Comoros archipelago, the convergence of monsoon flows and the flow up the Mozambique Channel defines an area where convective activity is also well present.

Tropical disturbance 04-20212022 :

Position at 10UTC : 13.8oS / 62.8oE

Movement : South-Southwest at 6 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 25 kt

Minimum central pressure : 1001hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO20 and WTIO30 bulletins to be issued at 12Z

Circulation east of Diego Garcia:

A low-pressure minimum is visible on the satellite image as well as on the ASCAT passes at 23h30UTC around 10.5oS / 86oE. The circulation is currently quite long and winds around 20kt. In the next few days, it will merge with the circulation south of the Cocos, but should not encounter conditions favorable to its intensification. However, some models suggest a deepening. The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm is therefore low in the next few days.

Circulation in the Australian zone :

A circulation is present around 6.5oS / 97.5oE south of the Cocos Islands and is moving westward into our area of responsibility. This vortex will merge with the previous one without intensifying. However, a new cyclogenesis could take place south of the Christmas Islands from Tuesday and this time encounter conditions favorable to the development of a moderate tropical storm. It would then move westward and enter our area on Tuesday or Wednesday. Deterministic and ensemble models suggest a moderate risk of moderate tropical storm formation from Tuesday.

Further south, the residual depression CLIFF continues its transit towards the West while moving away from Reunion Island then should disappear in the next 24-36h over Madagascar without noticeable effect.

Residual low CLIFF :

Position at 10UTC : 22.2oS / 53.4oE

Movement : West-Northwest at 12 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 15 kt in the southern semicircle

Minimum central pressure : 1008 hPa.

In summary, there is a low risk of a moderate tropical storm forming over the eastern part of the basin from Monday and a moderate risk of a tropical storm entering our area from the eastern end from Tuesday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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