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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 4 
Message-ID: <20220212133816.932BE1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2022 13:38:16 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 121247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4

2.A POSITION 2022/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 62.7 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/13 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/13 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/14 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/14 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/15 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/02/15 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMED
NORTH-EAST OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED
VARIABLE WITHIN THIS CIRCULATION WITH SIGNS OF CURVATURE IN THE CLOUD
PATTERN MORE OR LESS PRONOUNCED IN INFRARED. INDEED, THE 04 SYSTEM IS
STILL HINDERED BY A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A RATHER WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE, LIMITING THE CONVECTION ORGANIZATION. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ASCAT DATA THIS MORNING, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
UNCERTAIN. IN VIEW OF THE LAST DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE SYSTEM 04 IS
CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO
25KT, EVEN THIS ANALYSIS COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

SYSTEM 04 TRACK WILL BE DRIVEN BY HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS. IT
IS EVOLVING ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FAVORING A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY MOVEMENT OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY AT
SHORT RANGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS QUITE FAR AWAY (MORE THAN 300KM)
FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT
SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO TROMELIN ON MONDAY EVENING. A LANDING ON THE
NORTH-EASTEAN COAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE DISPERSION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE
IMPORTANT FROM TUESDAY MAKING STILL VERY UNCERTAIN THE LOCATION OF
THIS EVENTUAL LANDING (AREA FROM MAHAVELONA TO SAMABAVA). IN THE
SECOND PART OF NEXT WEEK, IN THE CASE OF A CROSSING OF MADAGASCAR,
THE SYSTEM COULD EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE.
EVEN IF THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS
THE SHEAR COULD ALSO LIMIT ITS DETRIMENTAL IMPACT. FINALLY, THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME EXCELLENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BY
WEDNESDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A
PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION ACCELERATING UP TO THE LANDFALL. SYSTEM
04 MAY HIT MADAGASCAR AT THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONSIDERING THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
DISTANCE OF PASSAGE, MAURITIUS AND REUNION SHOULD BE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONCERNED BY THE HEAVY RAINS AND THE STRONG WINDS RELATED TO THE
SYSTEM 04. CONCERNING MADAGASCAR, IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE
MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE IMPACTS. A DEGRADATION OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE INHABITANTS ARE THEREFORE ADVISED TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE
NEXT FORECASTS.=

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