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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220212160934.CB66A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2022 16:09:34 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 121605
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Moderate to fresh northerly=20
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force this
evening as the pressure gradient significantly tightens. Winds=20
will further increase to storm-force Sun afternoon through late
Sun night, with gale-force then persisting into early Wed. These
winds will result in very large seas, up to 20 ft, with the area
of seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well to the southwest of=20
the source region to near 09N112W by Tue afternoon. Seas will=20
gradually subside early next week. Refer to the NWS High Seas=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!vdouOlmETQxlN8iLI8WfxjvbGfF4qX4naAYDtqjivIH_9HZILkUhA7_eSnuBl=
HSKqVxrcQWY$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 08N79W to 08N88W to 06N97W to 08N106W. It
resumes at 10N120W to 10N129W. ITCZ extends from 07N132W to=20
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within
120 nm north of trough between 96W-100W, and within 60 nm south=20
of trough between 120W-124W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

Light to gentle winds remain across most of the waters of=20
Mexico, except moderate to fresh in the immediate Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail, except 3 ft or less in=20
the Gulf of California. Isolated showers are possible over=20
some areas of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, other than the developing storm warning in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in the=20
northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Norte
Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the=20
region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja=20
California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere,=20
reaching moderate speeds off Cabo Corrientes this weekend, and=20
then again by the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong offshore winds continue in the Papagayo region=20
as noted in an overnight ASCAT pass. A ship recently reported=20
northeast winds of 25 kt and combined seas of 8 ft near the=20
location of 10N88W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the=20
Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle=20
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across=20
the offshore waters, except 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and to within=20
120 nm west of Colombia due to a nearby surface trough and=20
moist southerly flow that is present over this area.

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is present from
14N to 17N between 106W-109W associated to a trough that is just
west of the offshore waters zones. A moist atmospheric
environment is helping to sustain this activity.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week.=20
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each=20
night through early next week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event will propagate into the=20
waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun night through=20
early next week, with wave heights peaking around 16 ft near=20
11N96W early Mon morning. Winds of fresh to near gale force will=20
spill into the same area of seas, highest near 12N95W. Light to=20
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. A trough
extends from near 17N111W to 12N114W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough from 14N=20
to 17N. Another trough extends from near 13N111W to 08N112.5W.=20
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm either side=20
of this trough from 10N to 12N. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are southwest of the through from 06N to 08N
between 112.5W-120W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the open=20
waters, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period SW and=20
NW swell.

For the forecast, the surface troughs along the ITCZ will
gradually dissipate today. Fairly tranquil marine conditions=20
will then remain across the open waters through Sun. The pressure
gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night, with trades=20
increasing to moderate to fresh, then further increasing to fresh
to strong in the west-central waters early Tue through Wed as=20
another surface trough along the ITCZ moves into the ridge. A=20
cold front may drop south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing=20
winds and seas over the north- central waters toward mid-week.

$$
Aguirre


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