Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 4 
Message-ID: <20220212185331.E5E4B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2022 18:53:31 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1644692013-26211-1280"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1644692013-26211-1280
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 121824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2022/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 62.1 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/13 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/13 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/14 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/14 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

THE ASCAT PASS OF 1702Z AS WELL AS A SMAP PASS A LITTLE EARLIER
AROUND 14Z SUGGEST THAT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. IN SPITE OF A SATELLITE CONFIGURATION WITHOUT FRANK
IMPROVEMENT, THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE
BASIS OF THESE DATA.

THE TRACK OF SYSTEM 04 WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL
GEOPOTENTIALS. IT IS EVOLVING ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAVORING A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRAJECTORY, ESPECIALLY AT SHORT RANGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS AT A
GOOD DISTANCE (MORE THAN 300 KM) FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND ON
MONDAY. A LANDFALL ON THE NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN TUESDAY OR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, STILL BETWEEN SAMBAVA
NORTHWARD TO FOULEPOINTE SOUTHWARD. IN THE SECOND PART OF NEXT WEEK,
IN THE CASE OF A CROSSING OF MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM COULD EMERGE IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
IMPROVE. EVEN IF THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
WEAKEN ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR COULD ALSO LIMIT ITS IMPACT. FINALLY, THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME EXCELLENT IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BY WEDNESDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE PRESENT FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES A PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSIFICATION
AND DOES NOT SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS HOWEVER
IMPORTANT TO UNDERLINE THAT THEY ALL HAVE A BAD POSITIONING AND A TOO
LOW INTENSITY AT ANALYSIS. THE ASSIMILATION OF THE ASCAT DATA OF THIS
EVENING SHOULD BRING MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLES.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONSIDERING THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
DISTANCE OF PASSAGE, MAURITIUS AND REUNION SHOULD BE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONCERNED BY THE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS LINKED TO SYSTEM 04.
CONCERNING MADAGASCAR, IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE LOCATION
BUT ESPECIALLY THE AMPLITUDE OF THE IMPACTS TO BE EXPECTED. A
DEGRADATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY. IT IS THEREFORE ADVISABLE TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE
NEXT FORECASTS.=

------------=_1644692013-26211-1280
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1644692013-26211-1280--