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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220212205550.9330D1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2022 20:55:50 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 122051
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Fresh to strong northerly=20
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force=20
tonight as the pressure gradient begins to significantly=20
tightens. Winds will further increase to storm-force Sun=20
afternoon through late Sun night, with gale-force then persisting
into early Wed. These winds will result in very large seas, up=20
to 20 ft, with the area of seas of 8 ft or greater propagating=20
well to the southwest of the source region to near 09N112W by Tue
afternoon. Seas will gradually subside early next week. Refer to
the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!vwYeLwzpRqTKMpbte7C86MmPkM9P3K1woUBnzESD_jRXdiYvRbLR-I0dMHY3h=
8po2arNLu-x$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 08N79W to 07N90W to 06N100W to 07N106W. It
resumes at 10N120W to 10N129W. ITCZ extends from 07N132W to=20
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm=20
south of the trough between 78W-80W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

Light to gentle winds remain across most of the waters of=20
Mexico, except moderate to fresh in the immediate Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail, except 3 ft or less in=20
the Gulf of California. Isolated showers are possible over=20
some areas of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, other than the developing storm warning in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in the=20
northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Norte
Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the=20
region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja=20
California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere,=20
reaching moderate speeds off Cabo Corrientes this weekend, and=20
then again by the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong offshore winds continue in the Papagayo region=20
as noted in an overnight ASCAT pass. A ship reported northeast=20
winds of 25 kt and combined wave heights of 8 ft this morning
near 10N88W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf=20
of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds=20
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the=20
offshore waters, except 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region.

The earlier scattered showers and thunderstorms that were=20
within 120 nm west of Colombia are quickly weakening.

An increasing area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is=20
noted from 14N to 17N between 106W-108W associated to a trough=20
that is just west of the offshore waters zones. In addition,
a moist atmospheric environment is helping to sustain this=20
activity.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week.=20
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each=20
night through early next week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event will propagate into the=20
waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun night through=20
early next week, with wave heights peaking around 17 ft near=20
11N96W early Mon morning. Winds of fresh to near gale force will=20
spill into the same area of seas, highest near 12N95W. Light to=20
gentle winds will continue elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. A trough
extends from near 16N111W to 12N114W. Scattered showers and=20
thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the trough from 14N to=20
16N. Another trough extends from near 13N111W to 07N113W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side
of this trough from 07N to 092N, and also from 06N to 09N between=20
116W-118W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are over
the open waters, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft due to mixed long-=20
period SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, the surface troughs will move westward through
Sun while dissipating. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will=20
then remain across the open waters through Sun. The pressure=20
gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night, with trades=20
increasing to moderate to fresh, then further increasing to fresh
to strong in the west-central waters from early Tue through Wed
night as another surface trough moves westward within the
tropical belt region, and at the same time strong high pressure=20
builds southward across the area. Wave heights are expected to
peak to near 10 ft in these waters on Wed. Per latest model=20
guidance, it appears most likely that a cold front will drop to=20
the south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and seas=20
over the north-central waters Wed and Wed night.

$$
Aguirre


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