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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 4 
Message-ID: <20220213010551.A621D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 01:05:51 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 130035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2022/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 61.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/13 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/14 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/14 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/15 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/15 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

THE SYSTEM HAD A STILL FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BURTS DEVELOPING IN A PRIVILEGED WAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST CONSTRAINT. THE
AMSR2 PASS OF 2119Z SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION GAINING IN
DEFINITION (37 GHZ) BUT LACKING DEEP STRUCTURED CONVECTION (89 GHZ).
THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT ACCORDING TO PREVIOUS ASCAT ESTIMATES
OF THE EVENING.

THE TRACK OF SYSTEM 04 WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL
GEOPOTENTIALS WHICH SHOULD DOMINATE THE STEERING FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM,
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL WEAKNESS ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS THUS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD PASS AT A GOOD DISTANCE (MORE THAN 300 OR 400 KM) FROM
MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND, ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE NORTHEAST COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY OR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT BETWEEN
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA.

ON THIS TRACK, THE LAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MIXED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM: GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL (WATERS AT 28-29C)
BUT LIMITED CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS (ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE)
AND PERSISTENCE OF A SHEAR CONSTRAINT FROM EAST-NORTH-EAST. DURING
THE NEXT 48H, THIS MODERATE SHEAR COULD HAVE AN ATTENUATED IMPACT DUE
TO THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, LEAVING FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONDITIONS
NEAR THE CENTER FOR AN AUTONOMOUS CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP. EVEN IF ALL
THE MODELS ALMOST NO LONGER SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST OF INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH DECREASING, IS STILL BASED ON A
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AN INCREASE IN
EASTWARD SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE ARRIVING NEAR THE
MALAGASY COAST WITH A WEAKENING TREND. GIVEN A FORECAST OF A LESS
DEVELOPED PHENOMENON, A DISSIPATION SCENARIO ON LAND NOW SEEMS MOST
LIKELY INSTEAD OF A REDEVELOPMENT IN THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
DISTANCE OF PASSAGE, MAURITIUS AND REUNION SHOULD BE ONLY MARGINALLY
AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
04. FOR MADAGASCAR, THE PROBABILITY OF AN IMPACT FROM A MATURE SYSTEM
(SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OR MORE) HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER,
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN
THE AREA BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. HEAVY RAINS (+100
MM IN 24H) ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTS OF WIND (80-90 KM/H) ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE. DUE TO THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE
SMALL. THE POPULATION OF THESE AREAS IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PHENOMENON.=

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