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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220213012851.A6AA81C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 01:28:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 130128
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Fresh to strong northerly=20
winds later this evening in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will=20
increase to gale-force tonight as the pressure gradient begins=20
to tighten. Winds will further increase to storm-force Sun=20
afternoon through late Sun night, with gale-force then persisting
into early Tue afternoon. These winds will result in very large=20
seas, up to 22 ft, with the area of seas of 8 ft or greater=20
propagating well to the southwest of the source region to near=20
09N113W by Tue afternoon. Seas will gradually subside early next=20
week. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!sqXL4jb3l2bswabbxYY0b5XW5uyITMLJ972UVoqOeT4GIE-CIt172L8GhKmDU=
VKowCFIQyLP$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from near the border of Panama and Costa Rica at
08.5N83W to 05N91W to 06.5N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N100W
to 10N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted=20
from 04N to 06N between 83W and 86W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, in the
process of rapidly increasing to strong to near gale-force.
Moderate winds are found just offshore of southwest Mexico,
including near Cabo Corrientes, as well as near the Revillagigedo
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of California.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6
ft across the offshore waters, with 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, other than the storm-force gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in=20
the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California=20
Norte Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the=20
region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja=20
California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere, except=20
for moderate winds off Cabo Corrientes continuing through early=20
Sun evening, then again from late Wed through Thu night.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh offshore winds in the Papagayo region are in=20
the process of increasing to fresh to strong. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the=20
offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through the end of next week. Moderate=20
to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night=20
through early next week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event will propagate into the=20
waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun afternoon=20
through early next week, with wave heights peaking around 17 ft=20
near 11N96W early Mon morning. Fresh to near gale-force winds=20
will spread over the Guatemala offshore waters west of 92W Mon,=20
while moderate to fresh winds will be offshore of El Salvador Mon
through early Tue. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. The
remnants of a surface trough are near 16N110W to 12N120W.=20
Moderate to locally fresh winds are near and northwest of this=20
trough, along with seas near 8 ft. Isolated to scattered showers=20
are possible in the vicinity of the troughs. Gentle to moderate=20
winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, along with
seas of 5 to 6 ft, locally to 7 ft, in mixed long-period SW and=20
NW swell.

For the forecast, the surface troughs will move westward through
Sun while slowly dissipating. Fairly tranquil marine conditions=20
will then remain across the open waters through Sun. The pressure
gradient will tighten north of the ITCZ Sun night, with trades=20
increasing to moderate to fresh, then further increasing to fresh
to strong in the west-central waters from early Tue through Wed=20
night as another surface trough moves westward within the=20
tropical belt region, and at the same time strong high pressure=20
builds southward across the area. Wave heights are expected to=20
peak to near 10 ft in these waters on Wed. Per latest model=20
guidance, it appears most likely that a cold front will drop to=20
the south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and seas=20
over the north-central waters Wed and Wed night.

$$
Lewitsky


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