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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220213070857.6F82C1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 07:08:57 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 130707
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Gale-force northerly winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to storm-force this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tighten further. Storm-force
winds are forecast to persist into early Mon, with gale-force=20
then persisting into early Tue afternoon. Winds may peak around
55 kt this evening. These winds will result in very large seas,=20
up to 22 ft, with the area of seas of 8 ft or greater propagating
well to the southwest of the source region to near 09N113W by=20
Tue afternoon. Seas will gradually subside early next week.
Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!siRVMIf5HxB6LsK1fd26bqukqUbDdEH9SjXSOkDLg7_cPV0dnWIz3EwEfStBF=
8gaHJwg2LVu$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from near the border of Panama and Costa Rica at
08N83W to 06N101W. The ITCZ extends from 06N101W to 10N120W to
08N133W to 09N140W. No significant convection is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

Northerly winds have rapidly increased to gale-force in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec with seas of 8 to 10 ft and building. Moderate=20
winds are found just offshore of southwest Mexico, including near
Cabo Corrientes, as well as near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Similar winds are in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle=20
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the=20
offshore waters, except to 7 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, other than the storm-force gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in=20
the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California=20
Norte Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the=20
region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja=20
California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere, except=20
for moderate winds off Cabo Corrientes continuing through this=20
evening, then again from late Wed through Thu night.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.=20
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama.=20
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6=20
ft range across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft in the
Papagayo region.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through the end of the week. Moderate to
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through
early week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-
force gap wind event will propagate into the waters offshore of=20
Guatemala and El Salvador this afternoon through early week, with
wave heights peaking around 17 ft near 11N96W early Mon morning.
Fresh to near gale-force winds will spread over the Guatemala=20
offshore waters west of 92W Mon, while moderate to fresh winds=20
will be offshore of El Salvador Mon through early Tue. Light to=20
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the open waters, along with seas=20
of 5 to 6 ft, locally to 7 ft near 16.5N113.5W, in mixed long-=20
period SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail
across the open waters today. The pressure gradient will tighten
north of the ITCZ tonight, with trades increasing to moderate to
fresh, then further increasing to fresh to strong in the west-=20
central waters from early Tue through Wed night as another=20
surface trough moves westward within the tropical belt region,=20
and at the same time strong high pressure builds southward across
the area. Wave heights are expected to peak to near 10 ft in=20
these waters on Wed. Per latest model guidance, it appears most=20
likely that a cold front will drop to the south of 30N Tue night,
bringing increasing winds and seas over the north-central waters
Wed and Wed night.

$$
Lewitsky


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