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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 4 
Message-ID: <20220213073300.631B21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 07:33:00 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 130622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/4/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2022/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 60.9 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/13 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/14 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/14 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

SYSTEM 04-20212022 STILL HAD FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT DUE
TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CDO. A 0457Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED AND SMALL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS REACHING 30KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, UP TO 35KT LOCALLY UNDER CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THE
LAST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN, PERHAPS TEMPORARY, THUS THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30
KT AT 06UTC.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD MAINLY DRIVE THE STEERING FLOW OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS MORE THAN 400 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS
AND REUNION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION, IT
COULD APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AROUND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA.

ON THIS TRACK, THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT
: GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL (SST NEAR 28-29C) BUT LIMITED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE AND PERSISTENCE OF AN
EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48H,
THIS MODERATE SHEAR COULD HAVE LOWER IMPACTS BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM'S
FASTER MOVEMENT, LEAVING FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONDITIONS NEAR THE
CENTER, POTENTIALLY ENABLING DEVELOPMENT OF AN AUTONOMOUS
CIRCULATION. EVEN IF MOST MODELS NO LONGER SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY,
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED BEFORE ARRIVING NEAR THE MALAGASY COAST, WHICH COULD TRIGGER
A WEAKENING TREND. GIVEN A FORECAST OF A LESS DEVELOPED SYSTEM, A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO OVER LAND NOW SEEMS MOST LIKELY INSTEAD OF A
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
CONFIRMED.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
PASSAGE AT MORE THAN 400 KM FOR THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, MAURITIUS AND
REUNION SHOULD ONLY BE MARGINALLY IMPACTED BY ITS HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS. FOR MADAGASCAR, THE PROBABILITY OF AN IMPACT OF A
MATURE SYSTEM (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OR MORE) HAS STRONGLY DECREASED.
HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME AND FOLLOWING NIGHT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. HEAVY RAINFALL (+100 MM IN
24 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND ANTALAHA, WITH LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 200-300MM LIKELY NEAR SAINTE-MARIE) ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE AREA
HIT BY CYCLONE BATSIRAI IN EARLY FEBRUARY SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THESE
VERY DISTURBED CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR NORTH OF
TOAMASINA. MOREOVER, CONSIDERING THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE SMALL. THE POPULATION OF THESE
AREAS IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM FROM NOW ON.=

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