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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 12:23:41 +0000
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800 
AWIO20 FMEE 131220

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/13 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 FMEE 004/04 to be issued at 6UTC on Tropical Depression 04-20212022.

Next at 12Z

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern undulating around 13oS east of 55E to the Australian AoR. Within this MT, many circulations are present, including the Tropical Depression 04-20212022 northeast of the Mascarene Islands. Several new cyclogenesis are likely in the next few days especially in the eastern part of the basin.

Tropical Depression 04-20212022 :

Position at 9UTC : 15.3oS / 60.3oE

Movement : West-Southwest at 10 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 30 kt

Minimum central pressure : 999hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and following.

East then south of Diego Garcia:

A low-pressure minimum is still visible on the satellite image as well as on the ASCAT passes of 0305UTC around 12.3oS / 87.0oE east of Diego-Garcia. The circulation is currently quite elongated and present at the edge of a large surface trough with little polar convergence. In the Australian AoR, the minimum still monitored by the BOM IDW10800 bulletin was located at 6UTC around 16.4oS / 92.6oE southwest of the Cocos Islands and is moving westward in our Area of Responsibility this evening. The last scatterometric passes (HY-2C of 2112z), do not show the presence of a near gale force winds, with maximum winds close to 25kt. In an unconducive environment, it should not intensify at short range (weak convergence on the equatorial side, presence of dry air).

In the next few days, these two circulations should evolve within the same large low pressure area. The latest models suggest that the Australian circulation could take over and become the main circulation. A new minimum could also form within this area and take over these first minimums. In any case, a closed circulation should be present by the middle of next week south of Diego-Garcia and could then encounter conducive conditions for its development. Indeed, from Thursday, the convergence on the polar side should improve with the arrival of a new high-pressure cell while the monsoon flow would remain fairly meridional. Aloft the divergence could become very good in the western semicircle, but the moderate to strong northeasterly shear could become a limiting factor. Cyclogenesis will most likely depend on the ability of this area to form a closed and compact surface circulation conducive for a more rapid intensification.

The risk of a moderate tropical storm forming south of Diego-Garcia becomes very low on Tuesday and low from Thursday

In the Australian zone:

In the Australian zone, according to BOM bulletin IDW10800, a second minimum was located at 6UTC around 14.5oS / 106.5oE southeast of Christmas Islands. Early next week, the conditions could become a little more conducive for the development of a tropical system near the border with the Australian AoR. The strengthening of the monsoon flow as well as the temporary decrease of the shear could favor the formation of a moderate tropical storm in this area. Numerical models are in fairly good agreement with this scenario and suggest the formation of a large system due to less convergence on the trade winds side. This system should move fairly quickly to the southwest and enter our area on Thursday before probably evacuating towards the mid-latitudes. Given the still distant range, the risk is maintained at moderate for now.

The risk of a moderate tropical storm entering from the east of the basin becomes low on Wednesday and moderate from Thursday.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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