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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 4 
Message-ID: <20220213133326.6952E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 13:33:26 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 131216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2022/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 60.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/14 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/14 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/15 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/15 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

AFTER A PERIOD OF HESITATION THIS MORNING, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM 04-20212022 HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HOURS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE 10Z, WITH A POWERFUL CONVECTIVE BURST AND
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ENLARGING THE CDO'S DIAMETER UP TO
ABOUT 100NM AT 12Z. MOREOVER, THE LLC INITIALLY LOCATED ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO HAS BECOME MORE CENTERED UNDERNEATH IT.
THE 0932Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS GOOD CURVATURE BUT THE
CONVECTIVE CORE IS STILL A BIT FRAGILE IN ITS NORTHERN PART FOR THE
MOMENT. THESE VARIOUS DATA, ADDED TO THIS MORNING'S ASCAT PASSES,
CONFIRM A WELL ADVANCED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE AND SUGGEST A
PROBABLY IMMINENT UPGRADE TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN THE
NEXT HOURS. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30KT AT 12UTC, WHICH
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE SYSTEM'S
STEERING FLOW WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3
DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS MORE THAN 400 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND
REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY. IT SHOULD THEN APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MIDDAY AND EVENING SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. THE TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY IS
VERY UNCERTAIN, BECAUSE OF A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AFTER TRACKING OVER
MALAGASY LANDS, DISRUPTING THE LOW'S CONSOLIDATION WHICH THUS BECOMES
DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM'S ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MIXED,
ALTHOUGH TEMPORARILY MORE CONDUCIVE IN THE SHORT TERM : GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SST ABOVE 28C), GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM BUT MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTH, MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM'S FASTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TONIGHT
AND UNTIL TOMORROW ALLOWS IT TO BETTER RESIST THIS SHEAR AND SHOULD
ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN MORE MOISTURE NEAR ITS CORE AND THUS ENABLE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE TO BE REACHED. MOREOVER, THE SYSTEM'S SMALL SIZE
MAKES IT SUBJECT TO POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES, WHICH COULD BE
LARGER THAN THE RSMC'S FORECAST. ON TUESDAY, AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL NEAR THE
MALAGASY COAST, INDUCING MORE OR LESS WEAKENING. LATER ON, THE
PREDOMINANT SCENARIO FAVORS A GRADUAL DISSIPATION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF MADAGASCAR IN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE OVERALL. THIS TREND WILL
NEVERTHELESS NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION: GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
PASSAGE MORE THAN 400 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, ONLY
MARGINAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME AND FOLLOWING NIGHT SOMEWHERE
MAINLY BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. HEAVY RAINFALL
(50-100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
ANTALAHA, WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 200-300MM LIKELY NEAR
SAINTE-MARIE) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
THE AREA HIT BY CYCLONE BATSIRAI IN EARLY FEBRUARY SHOULD REMAIN
UNTOUCHED BY THESE VERY DISTURBED CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD MAINLY
OCCUR NORTH OF TOAMASINA. MOREOVER, CONSIDERING THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. LOCAL
POPULATION IS INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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