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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For 
Message-ID: <20220213180519.7039F1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 18:05:19 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE/INDIAN/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13FEB22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 60.9E, APPROXIMATELY 374 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.4S 105.2E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL
ASCAT METOP-B PASS (131408Z) INDICATES CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND  WEAK RADIAL AND
WESTARD OUTFLOW. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT, DEPICTING
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 48-72 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THERE IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS 97S
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER, MORE
FAVORABLE OF WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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