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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 4 (dumako) 
Message-ID: <20220213183417.AD9301C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 18:34:17 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 131819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 58.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/14 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/14 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

AT 1430UTC, FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE
OBSERVATIONS OF SAINT BRANDON, THE THRESHOLD OF 34KT HAS BEEN
VALIDATED. THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS NAMED THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DUMAKO. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CONFIGURATION IN CDO ALLOWS TO MAINTAIN A DVORAK
ANALYSIS AT 3.0, LEAVING STILL ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 40KT. THE GPM
MICROWAVE PASS OF 1533UTC ALLOWS TO VALIDATE THIS SMALL INCREASE OF
DUMAKO INTENSITY WHILE THE 1729UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWS TO VALIDATE
VALUES OF 35KT WHICH COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED BECAUSE OF THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES THE MAIN DIRECTION OF DUMAKO'S TRACK,
WITH A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS MORE THAN 400 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND
REUNION THIS MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WITH THE FILLING OF THE RIDGE, THE
TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR
BETWEEN SAINT MARY'S ISLAND AND ANTALAHA, ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MIDDAY
AND EVENING. THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK WITH A SCENARIO A
LITTLE MORE NORTH-WEST IN CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD BE OF WEAKER
INTENSITY AND THUS DIRECTED BY SLIGHTLY LOWER STEERING FLOWS. THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED FOR THE MOMENT BY THE RSMC OF THE REUNION.
THEREAFTER, THE WEAKNESS OF THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORESEE
AN EXIT AT SEA OTHER THAN IN THE FORM OF A LARGE DEPRESSION ZONE OVER
THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE FORECAST OF THE RSMC TRACK
STOPS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS MIXED BUT
TEMPORARILY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM: SUFFICIENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT
MORE LIMITED ON THE NORTH COAST, AND A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR
TEMPORARILY WEAKENING. THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW ALLOWS IT TO BETTER RESIST
THIS SHEAR AND SHOULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM DURING ITS TRANSIT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE GREATER THAN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKNESS OF THE WET FEEDING FROM THE NORTH IS STILL
LIMITING ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FRANK INTENSIFICATION OF DUMAKO, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LAND AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ON THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TRANSITING ON LAND, THE DOMINANT OPTION IS THEN IN FAVOR
OF A PROGRESSIVE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN AN EXIT AT SEA
VERY ATTENUATED IN THE FORM OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE AREA PRESENTING
NO RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION: GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
PASSAGE MORE THAN 400 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE, MAURITIUS AND
REUNION ISLANDS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM.
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME AND FOLLOWING NIGHT SOMEWHERE
MAINLY BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. HEAVY RAINFALL
(50-100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
ANTALAHA, WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 200-300MM LIKELY NEAR
SAINTE-MARIE) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA. MOREOVER, CONSIDERING THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED. LOCAL POPULATION IS INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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