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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion...updated 
Message-ID: <20220213232719.05CC51C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022 23:27:19 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 132323
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022

Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The earlier gale-force=20
northerly winds have recently increased to storm-force as=20
the pressure gradient over Mexico continues to tighten and=20
a cool air mass surges southward over the western Gulf of=20
Mexico and toward southeastern Mexico. These storm-force winds=20
are forecast to persist until around 09Z Mon, with gale-force=20
winds then continuing into early Tue afternoon. Winds may peak to
around 55 kt tonight as suggested by latest model guidance.=20
These winds will result in very large seas, up to 22 ft, with the
area of seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well to the=20
southwest of the source region to near 09N113W by Tue afternoon.=20
Seas will gradually subside early next week. Refer to the NWS=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!r39Sv-6bCFeyLFxaoeLZyUmDnh073RSvOkbU7L05LPEAxrwEOnh7XTIFB7rY3=
y2OVlQ01wtw$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from southern Costa Rica to 08N79W to 06N90W=20
and to 06N98W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it=20
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N113W to 09N125W to
09N135W and to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection is=20
noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

Storm-force N winds of 35-50 kt have recently developed in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with resultant wave heights in=20
the range of 12-18 ft. Winds elsewhere north of 14N between 94W-=20
97W are N to NE in the gale-force range of 25-35 kt, with wave=20
heights of 10-16 ft, and N to NE winds of 20-30 kt over the=20
remainder waters N of 10N between 94W-97W along with wave=20
heights in the range of 8-12 ft. Moderate northwest to north=20
winds are just offshore of southwestern Mexico, including near=20
Cabo Corrientes, as well as near the Revillagigedo Islands.=20
Similar winds are in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle=20
winds are present elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in the=20
offshore waters, except to 7 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands.=20
Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, other than the storm-force gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are possible in=20
the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California=20
Norte Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the=20
region. Building NW swell will accompany the front west of Baja=20
California. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere, except=20
for moderate winds off Cabo Corrientes continuing through Thu,=20
then increasing to fresh speeds Thu night through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.=20
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama.=20
Light to gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft=20
range in the offshore waters, except to 7 ft in the Papagayo=20
region.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night
in the Gulf of Papagayo through the end of the week. Moderate to
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through
early week. Fresh seas generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-
force gap wind event will propagate into the waters offshore of=20
Guatemala and El Salvador this afternoon through early week, with
wave heights peaking to around 18 ft near 11N96W early Mon=20
morning. Fresh to near gale-force winds will spread over the=20
Guatemala offshore waters west of 92W Mon, while moderate to=20
fresh winds will be offshore of El Salvador Mon through early=20
Tue. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to
moderate winds remain over the open waters, along with seas of
5-6 ft due to primarily a NW swell.

For the forecast, fairly tranquil marine conditions will continue
across the open waters today. The pressure gradient will tighten
north of the ITCZ tonight, with trades increasing to moderate to
fresh, then further increasing to fresh to strong in the west-=20
central waters from early Tue through Wed night as another=20
surface trough moves westward within the tropical belt region,=20
and at the same time strong high pressure builds southward across
the area. Wave heights are expected to peak to near 10 ft in=20
these waters on Wed. Per latest global model guidance, it=20
appears most likely that a cold front will drop to the south of=20
30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and seas over the north-
central waters Wed and Wed night.

The gradient will begin to tighten in the far western part of the
area on Tue between high pressure that builds S into the area=20
behind the aforementioned cold front and a trough that develops=20
just west of 140W. This synoptic pattern set-up is expected to
bring fresh to strong northeast winds to the waters just W of=20
140W, but the eastern part of the area is forecast to extend
E of 140W to near 137W and from 16N to 19N. Wave heights with
these winds are expected to reach 9 ft.

$$
Aguirre


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