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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 4 (dumako) 
Message-ID: <20220214002619.38A3A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2022 00:26:19 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 140015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 57.1 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/14 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/15 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/15 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN CDO HAS CONTINUED WITH
STRONG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY, WHICH IS A SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION. THE
PREVIOUS DVORAK ANALYSIS VALUES BEING QUITE LOW, THE DVORAK RULES
CURRENTLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF DUMAKO TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD. THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE AROUND 45KT. BUT IT IS NOT
EXCLUDED THAT THE 50KT THRESHOLD IS REACHED BECAUSE OF THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH CANNOT BE VALIDATED IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES THE MAIN
DIRECTION OF DUMAKO'S TRACK, WITH A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS MORE THAN 400
KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION THIS MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WITH THE
FILLING OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR BETWEEN SAINT MARY'S ISLAND AND
ANTALAHA, ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MIDDAY AND EVENING. THERE IS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK WITH A SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE NORTH-WEST IN
CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD BE OF WEAKER INTENSITY AND THUS DIRECTED BY
SLIGHTLY LOWER STEERING FLOWS. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED FOR THE
MOMENT BY THE RSMC OF THE REUNION. THEREAFTER, THE WEAKNESS OF THE
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORESEE AN EXIT AT SEA OTHER THAN IN THE
FORM OF A LARGE DEPRESSION ZONE OVER THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE FORECAST OF THE RSMC TRACK STOPS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS MIXED BUT
ALLOWS FOR PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION FOR DUMAKO, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SHORT TERM. IT IS THE EQUATORIAL FEEDING THAT LIMITS THE SYSTEM'S
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DIRECT INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO ITS ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ABLE TO RESIST THE
PRESENT MODERATE SHEAR AND DUMAKO SHOULD GLOBALLY MAINTAIN THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD DURING ITS TRANSIT TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD MAY BE TEMPORARILY
REACHED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE
GREATER THAN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. A LANDING AT THE STAGE OF A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IS THE MOST
LIKELY. TRANSITING ON LAND, THE DOMINANT OPTION IS THEN IN FAVOR OF A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN A VERY ATTENUATED EXIT AT
SEA IN THE FORM OF A LARGE DEPRESSIONAL ZONE PRESENTING NO RISK OF
REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION: GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
PASSAGE MORE THAN 400 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE, MAURITIUS AND
REUNION ISLANDS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM.
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME AND FOLLOWING NIGHT SOMEWHERE
MAINLY BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. HEAVY RAINFALL
(50-100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
ANTALAHA, WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 200-300MM LIKELY NEAR
SAINTE-MARIE) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA. MOREOVER, CONSIDERING THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE COAST AT THE END OF THE
NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY AND REACH VALUES OF ABOUT 3M FOR THE
MOST PROBABLE WAVE HEIGHT (IN THE WORST CASE, THE HIGHEST VALUES CAN
REACH 5M). THE POPULATION OF THESE AREAS IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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