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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220214040143.A91251C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2022 04:01:43 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 140400
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force winds prevail over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec as the pressure gradient over Mexico=20
tightens over the western Gulf of Mexico and southeastern=20
Mexico. These storm-force winds are forecast to persist until=20
12Z Mon and gale- force winds will continue through Tue=20
afternoon. Winds may peak to around 55 kt tonight as suggested by
latest model guidance. These winds will result in very large=20
seas, peaking to 22 ft tonight, with the area of seas of 8 ft or
greater propagating well to the southwest of the source region=20
to near 05N112W by Tue afternoon. Seas will gradually subside by=20
Wed. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!qLVa-ZrR9if071P1_oRGqzLhb2Kf-275JcvtQWR1hNy6dl-AKrX_YYL8NoFfY=
QNe3QL4d06i$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to
05N97W. The ITCZ continues from 05N97W to 10N116W to 08N130W to
08N140W. Isolated convection is noted from 08N to 11N between
111W and 115W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

Storm-force N winds of 40-55 kt are ongoing wave heights ranging
from 14-20 ft. Winds elsewhere north of 12N between 94W- 97W are
N to NE in the gale-force range of 30-40 kt, with wave heights=20
of 12-18 ft. N to NE winds of 20-30 kt are over the remainder=20
waters N of 09N between 94W-99W along with wave heights in the=20
range of 8-12 ft.=20

Outside of the storm warning in Tehuantepec, moderate northwest=20
to north winds are just offshore of southwestern Mexico,=20
including near Cabo Corrientes, as well as near the Revillagigedo
Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the Gulf of=20
California. Light to gentle winds are present elsewhere. Seas are
mainly 4-6 ft in the offshore waters. Seas are 3 ft or less in=20
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, storm-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through early Mon morning, with gale-force winds
continuing through Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will
develop in the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja=20
California Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through
the region. On Tue night, seas could reach near 8 ft in the=20
northern Gulf of California along with building NW swell=20
accompanying the front west of Baja California. Light to gentle=20
winds will prevail elsewhere, except for moderate winds off Cabo=20
Corrientes continuing through Thu, then increasing to fresh=20
speeds Thu night through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong offshore winds are in the Papagayo region. Moderate to=20
fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama and light to=20
gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in=20
the offshore waters, except to 7 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist across the
Gulf of Papagayo through Wed morning, then pulse fresh to strong
on Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of=20
Panama each night through Wed night. Seas generated by the Gulf=20
of Tehuantepec storm- force gap wind event will continue to=20
propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador=20
through Tue night. Wave heights will peak around 18 ft near=20
11N96W early Mon morning. Fresh to near gale- force winds will=20
spread over the Guatemala offshore waters west of 92W Mon, while=20
moderate to fresh winds will be offshore of El Salvador Mon=20
through early Tue. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to
moderate winds remain over the open waters, along with seas of
5-6 ft due to primarily a NW swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten north of=20
the ITCZ tonight, with trades increasing to moderate to fresh. By
Tue through Wed night, winds will further increase fresh to=20
strong as another surface trough moves westward within the=20
tropical belt region, and at the same time strong high pressure=20
builds southward across the area. Wave heights are expected to=20
peak to near 10 ft in these waters on Wed. A cold front will=20
drop to the south of 30N Tue night, bringing increasing winds and
seas over the north- central waters Wed and Wed night.

The gradient will begin to tighten in the far western part of the
area on Tue between high pressure that builds S into the area=20
behind the aforementioned cold front and a trough that develops=20
just west of 140W. This synoptic pattern set-up is expected to
bring fresh to strong northeast winds to the waters near 140W,=20
but the eastern part of the area is forecast to extend E of 140W=20
to near 137W and from 15N to 20N on Tue night. Wave heights with
these winds are expected to reach 9 ft.

$$
AReinhart


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