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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 4 (dumako) 
Message-ID: <20220214074341.B849F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2022 07:43:41 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 140652
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/14 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS DECLINED SLIGHTLY,
WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A GRADUAL REHEATING OF THE TOPS.
THE LLCC SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
PROBABLY LINKED TO THE NORTHEAST WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. DUE TO
MICROWAVE DATA AND SCATTEROMTERS DATA CENTERED ON DUMAKO, THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD, GIVEN THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEFINES THE MAIN DIRECTION OF DUMAKO'S TRACK, WITH A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY MOVEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE DRIFT MORE THAN 400 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION THIS
MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDING
ON MADAGASCAR BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF SAINT-MARIE AND SAMBAVA, TUESDAY
BETWEEN MIDDAY AND EVENING.
THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK WITH A SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE
NORTH-WEST IN CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD WEAKEN AND WOULD BE THUS DIRECTED
BY SLIGHTLY LOWER STEERING FLOWS. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY THE RSMC. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A
RE-EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FAR SOUTH OF
THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO, IN A VERY WEAKENED FORM. DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY IS
SUBJECT TO A HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, DUMAKO SHOULD ENCOUNTER MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY
CONSTRAINED NOT ONLY BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT
ALSO BY A LACK OF EQUATORIAL FEEDING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, DUMAKO SHOULD RESIST THE SHEAR ALOFT AND
REMAIN AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM UNTIL ITS LANDING ON THE
MALAGASY COAST. A LANDING AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR REMAINS THE MOST PROBABLE OPTION.
DUMAKO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND AND EMERGE AT A WEAKENED STAGE
BY MID-WEEK, AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT A RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MAURITIUS AND REUNION: DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS
TRANSIT MORE THAN 400 KM FURTHER NORTH, THE  ISLANDS WON'T BE
IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM.
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW TUESDAY ON THE EAST COAST BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND
NOSY-VARIKA.
HEAVY RAINS (100-150 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE BETWEEN CAPE MASOALA AND
TOAMASINA, AS WELL AS THE HIGHLANDS, WITH LOCAL PEAKS OF 200-300MM
LIKELY NEAR SAINTE-MARIE) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) QUITE
CONTAINED GEOGRAPHICALLY, ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE LANDING ZONE. INDEED, CONSIDERING THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE SMALL. THE CYCLONIC SWELL
SHOULD REACH THE COAST AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
AND REACH VALUES OF ABOUT 3M FOR THE MOST PROBABLE WAVE HEIGHT (IN
THE WORST CASE, THE HIGHEST VALUES COULD REACH 5M). THE POPULATION OF
THESE AREAS IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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