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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2022 12:21:27 +0000
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848 
AWIO20 FMEE 141216

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/14 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 and WTIO30 FMEE 008/04 issued at 06UTC on Moderate Tropical Storm DUMAKO.

Next at 12Z

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a monsoon trough (MT) pattern centered around 13S east of 55E and also extending into the Australian area of responsibility. Several clockwise vorticity areas are embeded within this MT, including Tropical Storm DUMAKO (system 04-20212022) located off the northeastern coast of Madagascar, as well as a few other precursors which have a chances of undergoing tropical cyclogenesis in the next few days, especially from the east of the basin.

Moderate Tropical Storm DUMAKO :

Position at 09UTC : 16.6S / 55.5E

Movement : West-southwest at 13 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 40 kt

Minimum central pressure : 993hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

South of Diego Garcia then north-east of the Mascarene Islands :

A fairly large and elongated low-pressure system is visible on satellite imagery around 12.3S / 83.6E southeast of Diego Garcia. Associated convection is strongly offset to the west of the surface center by strong easterly shear. A small secondary vortex is passing to the immediate southwest of this low (tiny system that was still in the AoR yesterday) located at 12UTC around 15.8S / 82.2E. The latest scatterometric data do not show winds exceeding 25 kt associated with these circulations. In the next few days, these two circulations should evolve within the same large low-pressure area and will be difficult to differentiate. Environmental background will remain unconducive in the short run due to the persistence of moderate to strong easterly shear. The circulation should gradually shift westward, passing south of Diego Garcia by mid-week, then approaching to the northeast of the Mascarene archipelago. It could then encounter more conducive conditions for its development. In
 deed, fr
 om Thursday, poleward convergence should improve with the arrival of a new high-pressure cell while convergence from the monsoon flow will remain efficient. Aloft, divergence could become very good in the western semicircle along with more moderate wind shear, but which could still be a limiting factor and source of forecast uncertainty. Development potential will also depend on the ability of this area to form a closed and compact surface circulation conducive to more rapid intensification. With an increasing number of ensemblist and deterministic scenarios favoring storm development, the risk is increased to moderate for the end of the week.
The risk of a tropical storm forming southwest of Diego Garcia and off the northeast of the Mascarene Islands becomes low on Thursday and then moderate from Friday.

In the Australian aera of responsibility :

According to BOM's bulletin IDW10800, another low pressure minimum was located at 06UTC around 14.2S / 102.7E, southeast of the Cocos Islands. By midweek, conditions could become more conducive for development near the border with the Australian aera of responsibility. Strengthening of the monsoon flow as well as temporary decrease in wind shear could favor the formation of a moderate tropical storm between Tuesday and Wednesday. This system is expected to move fairly quickly southwestward and enter our area between Wednesday night and Thursday near 20S. An approaching mid-latitude trough could initially favor upper level divergence but should then increase wind shear and advect dry air over the system, which could make it become more or less quickly asymmetrical and post-tropical, before exiting towards the mid-latitudes during the weekend while remaining east of 80E. Uncertainty remains about the more or less tropical nature of this system when it enters our area of respons
 ibility 
 (GFS suggests that dry air could interfere as early as Thursday). Despite a high probability of winds exceeding 35 kt, uncertainty about the tropical nature of the system as it passes west of 90E justifies maintaining a moderate, not strong, risk.
There is a moderate risk of a tropical storm entering from the east of the basin from Thursday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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