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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 4 (dumako) 
Message-ID: <20220214194614.BF50E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2022 19:46:14 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 141848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRENGTHENED AGAIN
WITH A BURST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
DUMAKO'S CLOUD PATTERN STILL SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY A
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AROUND 20KT, LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1334Z SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS IT WITH A
LOW LEVEL CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE BURST. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS READJUSTED TO 35KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THE POSITION OF THE CENTER REMAINS
RATHER UNCERTAIN.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES
DUMAKO'S MAIN STEERING FLOW, WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL
TOMORROW TUESDAY. THEN, WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE SOUTH,
THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDING
ON MADAGASCAR BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND MASOALA PENINSULA,
TOMORROW. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUTS STILL
SUGGEST AN EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, IN A WEAKENED FORM. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD
MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS BY THURSDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, DUMAKO SHOULD ENCOUNTER MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY LIMITED
NOT ONLY BY THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT BUT ALSO BY A LACK
OF EQUATORIAL FEEDING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
DUMAKO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL ITS LANDFALL ON
THE MALAGASY COAST. WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE CHANNEL, SOME OF THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE IFS MODEL SUGGEST A POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION.TH
IS SCENARIO IS NOT FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT BECAUSE IT IS UNLIKELY AND
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATION
DESPITE THE CROSSING OF MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE EAST COAST BETWEEN CAPE MASOALA AND TAMATAVE,
PARTICULARLY THE AREA SOUTH OF THE SAINTE MARIE ISLAND.
1/ HEAVY RAINS: 50-100MM ON THE COASTLINE, 200-300MM ON THE HIGH
GROUND IN 24H
2/ STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H)
3/ THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND REACH AROUND 3
TO 4 METERS=

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