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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220214213406.B49DB1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2022 21:34:06 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 142133
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1530Z ASCAT pass has=20
confirmed the presence of gale-force winds peaking to 45 kt in=20
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In addition, ship with call ID "3FRB4"=20
reported an observation of NE 35 kt winds near 15N96W just past=20
18Z. The gradient will remain tight enough to allow for gale-=20
force winds to last through Tue night. Altimeter data passes from
this morning indicate wave heights of 12-19 ft downstream of the
Gulf to near 10N98W. The area of 8 ft or greater seas will=20
continue to propagate well to the southwest of the source region=20
to near 05N110W by Tue night. Wave heights will gradually subside
by Wed. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!vAKEm1FjebnNwE-T6gyqUS8RckRS6BgPyNkuYjKxqHVkgnmHM0QHsMG9716zX=
4KadRpQ9_fX$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to=20
05N90W to 43N98W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N110W to 07N120W to 09N130W and=20
to beyond 09N140W. No significant convection is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Gale-force N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds
elsewhere north of 10N between 95W- 98W are N-NE 20-30 kt, with=20
wave heights in the range of 12-18 ft.=20

Outside of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate NE winds continue=20
off the Baja California and Baja California Sur offshores.=20
Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of=20
California. Overnight ASCAT data passes show gentle to=20
moderate NW to N winds offshore of southwestern Mexico, near=20
Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are present  between Cabo
Corrientes and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas range 3-6 ft due to
a S to SW swell across the area, with seas of 3-4 ft in the Gulf
of California.

For the forecast, the gradient will be tight enough in southern
Mexico to allow for gale-force winds to continue through Tue=20
night. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the northern Gulf of
California and offshore of Baja California Tue afternoon and=20
night as a cold front moves through the region. On Tue night,=20
seas could reach near 8 ft in the northern Gulf of California=20
along with building NW swell accompanying the front west of Baja=20
California. Moderate winds will prevail off Cabo Corrientes=20
midweek and become fresh later in the week. Otherwise, light to=20
gentle winds can be expected elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong to near gale-force northeast winds, with possible=20
occasional gusts to gale-force, are offshore the Papagayo region
with seas of 8-9 ft. Meanwhile, strong to near gale-force winds=20
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are reaching the=20
offshore waters of Guatemala producing seas of 11-17 ft there.=20
Gentle to moderate north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, while=20
light to gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere. Seas are in the=20
4-6 ft range in the offshore waters outside of Guatemala and=20
Papagayo.

An increasing area of scattered moderate convection is off the=20
Colombia coast and in the Gulf of Panama from 01N to 09N between
78W-84W.

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force NE winds, with=20
possible occasional gusts to gale-force will continue in the=20
Gulf of Papagayo through Tue morning, diminishing to fresh to=20
strong speeds by early Tue afternoon. These winds will change=20
little through Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in=20
the Gulf of Panama each night through Wed night. Moderate to=20
fresh NE winds offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador will=20
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night through Fri night.
Wave heights generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec storm- force=20
gap wind event will continue to propagate into the waters=20
offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue night. Light
to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Latest=20
scatterometer data passes show gentle to moderate NE to E winds=20
over the open waters, along with seas of 5-6 ft due to primarily=20
a NW swell.

For the forecast, a tighter pressure gradient north of the ITCZ
due to strengthening high pressure has increased the trades to=20
moderate to fresh speeds. From Tue through Wed night, winds will=20
further increase fresh to strong as a surface trough moves=20
westward within the tropical belt region, and while strong high=20
pressure builds southward across the area. Wave heights are=20
expected to peak to near 10 ft in these waters on Wed and Wed=20
night. Winds will become fresh by Thu, with seas continuing to be
around 8 ft into next weekend. A cold front is forecast to drop=20
to the south of 30N on Tue, bringing increasing winds and seas=20
over the north-central waters Wed and Wed night.

$$
Aguirre


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