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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220215035135.1BAB71C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 03:51:35 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 150351
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: An earlier ASCAT confirmed the
presence of gale-force winds peaking to 45 kt in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. The gradient will remain tight enough to allow for=20
gale- force winds to last through Tue night. Seas are currently
17 ft with 8 ft or greater seas continuing to propagate well to=20
the southwest of the source region to near 05N110W by Tue night.=20
Wave heights will gradually subside by Wed. Refer to the NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!qks2Aqi0Ta3P-HShf-2N1MOBfVRFBZQcv-Z-JydZ6mF4qMDO7tH3nhp67lbAH=
HOXTXQ5o6C4$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected=20

A trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N86W to=20
03N97W. The ITCZ extends from 03N97W to 06N122W to beyond
08N140W. Isolated convection is noted from 04N to 07N between
103W and 109W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Gale-force N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds=20
elsewhere north of 11N between 95W-98W are N-NE 20-30 kt, with=20
wave heights in the range of 12-17 ft.=20

Outside of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate NE winds continue=20
off the Baja California and Baja California Sur offshores.=20
Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of California.=20
Light to gentle winds are present elsewhere across the Mexico
offshores. Seas ranging 8-10 ft, generated by the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec gap wind event, are moving into the Guerrero=20
offshores. Expect Seas range 3-6 ft due to a S to SW swell across
the area, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the gradient will be tight enough in southern
Mexico to allow for gale-force winds to continue through Tue=20
night. The swell moving into the Guerrero offshores will begin to
subside by Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop in=20
the northern Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California=20
Tue afternoon and night as a cold front moves through the region.
On Tue night, seas could reach near 8 ft in the northern Gulf of
California along with building NW swell accompanying the front=20
west of Baja California. Moderate winds will prevail off Cabo=20
Corrientes midweek and become fresh later in the week. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds can be expected elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong to near gale-force northeast winds, with possible=20
occasional gusts to gale-force, are offshore the Papagayo region
with seas of 8-9 ft. Meanwhile, strong to near gale-force winds=20=20
are occurring in the offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas in the
Guatemala offshores are reaching 8-13 ft, mostly caused by the
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama with seas to
4 ft. Light to gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere with seas
4-6 ft.=20

An increasing area of scattered moderate convection is off the=20
Colombia coast and in the Gulf of Panama from 01N to 09N and W of
83W.=20

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force NE winds, with=20
possible occasional gusts to gale-force will continue in the=20
Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, becoming fresh to strong on Tue
through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in=20
the Gulf of Panama each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong
NE winds offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador will diminish to=20
moderate to fresh speeds by Tue morning through Wed. Wave=20
heights generated by the recent Gulf of Tehuantepec storm- force=20
wind event and the current gap wind gale event will continue to=20
propagate into the waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador=20
through Tue night. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters, along with seas
of 5-6 ft due to primarily a NW swell.

For the forecast, a tighter pressure gradient north of the ITCZ
due to strengthening high pressure has increased the trades to=20
moderate to fresh speeds. From Tue through Wed night, winds will=20
further increase fresh to strong as a surface trough moves=20
westward within the tropical belt region, and while strong high=20
pressure builds southward across the area. Wave heights are=20
expected to peak to near 10 ft in these waters on Wed and Wed=20
night. Winds will become fresh by Thu, with wave heights=20
continuing to be around 8 or 9 ft into next weekend. A cold=20
front is forecast to drop to the south of 30N on Tue, bringing=20
increasing winds and seas over the north-central waters Wed and=20
Wed night.

$$
AReinhart


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