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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220215092158.A40BA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 09:21:58 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 150921
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Overnight ASCAT pass shows=20
gale-force winds continuing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with N
winds of 40 kt. Seas are up to 18 ft near the highest winds. The
gradient between high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and low=20
pressure over Mexico will remain tight enough for gale-force=20
winds to persist through Tue night. Seas of 8 ft or greater will=20
keep propagating well to the southwest of the source region to=20
near 05N110W through tonight. Wave heights will gradually=20
subside by Wed. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!pS5z8bZx09bdvPpQtjPZb-qNTcakd_9n8SJyXzDzjSscIo9kjkfKiCbAfRDVx=
y5nlDRSUPEH$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 07N84W
to 03N94W. The ITCZ extends from 03N94W to 07N117W to beyond
07N140W. Isolated convection is noted from 04N to 06N between=20
104W and 116W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Outside of Tehuantepec, moderate winds are noted off the northern
coast of Baja California with light to gentle winds across the
Baja California Sur offshores. Light to gentle winds prevail
across the Gulf of California and the rest of the Mexico
offshores. Seas to 8 ft, generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
gap wind event, are moving into the Guerrero offshores. Seas
ranging from 3-6 ft are noted across the Mexico offshores with=20
seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the gradient will be tight enough in southern
Mexico to allow for gale-force winds to persist through tonight.
The swell moving into the Guerrero offshores will subside by=20
this afternoon. A cold front is expected to push southward across
Baja California and the Gulf of California today and dissipate=20
by Wed. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the northern Gulf=20
of California and offshore of Baja California this afternoon and=20
continue through tonight. Seas could reach 8 ft in the northern=20
Gulf tonight with the highest winds. Fresh winds will persist off
Cabo Corrientes Thu and Fri.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong to near gale-force northeast winds are offshore the=20
Papagayo region with seas of 8-10 ft. Meanwhile, fresh to strong
winds are occurring in the offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas in
the Guatemala offshores are reaching 8-11 ft, mostly caused by=20
the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Fresh to locally strong=20
northerly winds are prevailing in the Gulf of Panama with seas=20
to 4 ft. Light to gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere with seas
4-6 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the
Gulf of Panama and near southern Costa Rica.=20

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force NE winds will=20
continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Fresh to=20
locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight and
Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds across the El Salvador
and Guatemala offshores will diminish later today with the swell
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec subsiding by tonight. Light to=20
gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters, along with seas
of 5-6 ft due to primarily a NW swell.

For the forecast, a surface trough west of the area will approach
the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high=20
pressure and this trough will bring fresh to strong winds near
140W by tonight and continue through Thu. Seas are expected to
range 8-10 ft and spread eastward to 122W by late this week. Seas
will subside later in the weekend. A cold front is expected to=20
drop southward across the Baja California offshores and the open=20
waters of the Pacific. This will bring seas 8-10 ft later today=20
and eventually merge with the aforementioned swell by Wed.=20

$$
AReinhart


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