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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 12:01:21 +0000
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693 
AWIO20 FMEE 151149

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/02/15 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 and WTIO30 FMEE 012/04 issued at 06UTC on Moderate Tropical Storm DUMAKO. Bulletins to be issued at 12UTC on Moderate Tropical Storm DUMAKA and Zone of disturbed weather no05-20212022.

 
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin has a configuration of monsoon trough (MT) centered around 13S east of 55E, to the Australian area. Within this TM, many circulations are present, including Tropical Storm DUMAKO (system 04-20212022) to the immediate east of Madagascar and the Zone of disturbed weather No. 5-20212022 to the east-northeast of Rodrigues is beginning to be monitored by CMRS.

Moderate Tropical Storm DUMAKO :

Position at 09UTC : 16.7S / 50.1E

Movement : West-northwest at 9 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 35 kt

Minimum central pressure : 997 hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and following.

Zone of disturbed weather no05-20212022 :

Position : 14.6S / 74.3E

Movement : West 10 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 20 kt

Minimum central pressure : 1000 hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

In addition, another low pressure system is followed in the BOM bulletin IDW10800 and is currently located in the Australian zone. It was located around 15N92E at 11UTC. By mid-week, conditions could become a little more favorable for the development of a tropical system near the border with the Australian zone. The strengthening of the monsoon flow as well as the temporary decrease in shear could favor the formation of a moderate tropical storm in this area between Wednesday and Thursday. This system is expected to move fairly quickly southwestward and enter our area between Wednesday night and Thursday near 20S. The approach of a mid-latitude trough from the southwest could initially favor the upper level divergence but should also increase the shear and advect dry air over the system, which could make it more or less quickly asymmetric and post-tropical, before evacuating towards the mid-latitudes on Saturday while remaining east of 80E. Uncertainty remains about the more 
 or less 
 tropical nature of this system when it enters our area of responsibility (GFS interferes with the dry air as early as Thursday). Despite a high probability of winds exceeding 35 kt, the uncertainty about the purely tropical nature of the system as it passes through 90E justifies maintaining a moderate, not strong, risk.

There is therefore a moderate risk of a tropical storm entering from the east of the basin starting Thursday.

 
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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