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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 5 
Message-ID: <20220215122908.E37411C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 12:29:08 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 151216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5

2.A POSITION 2022/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 73.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2022/02/17 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

DURING LAST NIGHT, THE CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY STRENGTHENED AROUND THE
CYCLOGENESIS AREA, BUT STILL SEEMS TO SUFFER FROM THE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY STRESS (20/25KT ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA), ALLOWING
NEVERTHELESS THE CIRCULATION, STILL ELONGATED, TO TAKE A MORE
CIRCULAR ASPECT SINCE THE LAST HOURS.


DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CIRCULATE QUITE RAPIDLY
IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE BELT. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE VERTICAL EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM.

FROM FRIDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH WEAKENS THEN THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE STRENGTHENS AND DESCENDS
TOWARDS THE SOUTH, INFLECTING THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-WEST BY RELEASING. THE SYSTEM IS THEN APPROACHING THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, ENCOUNTERING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE
TO A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.=

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