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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220215135020.4EA8E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 13:50:20 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 151430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/151430Z-151800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140751ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14FEB22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 55.2E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA
REUNION, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 140900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 105.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 98.4E, APPROXIMATELY
196 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 141013Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED
LLC WITH FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 141440Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A SMALL REGION OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED 200NM TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE WITH VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGES FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 75.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 73.5E, APPROXIMATELY
433 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. INVEST AREA 96S HAS BEEN
RELOCATED SEVERAL DEGREES FURTHER WEST BASED ON REANALYSIS OF
AVAILABLE IMAGERY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PREDOMINANTLY MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES RANGES FROM 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR TO THE SYSTEMS NORTH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALL EQUATING TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH CONSIDERABLE CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO LOW.
NNNN


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