Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220215183518.CFB1D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 18:35:18 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1644950126-26211-2735"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1644950126-26211-2735
Content-Type: text/plain

ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15FEB22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 50.4E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 150900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 73.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 72.3E, APPROXIMATELY 402
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A REGION OF
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 151350Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30C), AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 98.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY
314 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 151218Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151559Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS
AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


------------=_1644950126-26211-2735
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1644950126-26211-2735--