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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 4 (dumako) 
Message-ID: <20220215183727.F1C941C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 18:37:27 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 151831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 48.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

DUMAKO LANDED ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IN LATE AFTERNOON,
PASSING BY THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE. THE SYSTEM GENERATED DURING
ITS LANDING STRONG CONVECTIVE PUFFS, ASSOCIATED PUNCTUALLY WITH A
STRONG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY ON THE PROVINCE OF ANALANJIROFO. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 30KT, THANKS TO THE
OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY THE TAMATAVE STATION. IN THE NEXT HOURS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LOGICALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE LAND.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEFINES THE MAIN STEERING FLOW OF DUMAKO. THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
STILL SUGGESTS AN EXIT OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL BY MIDWEEK, IN A VERY WEAKENED FORM. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CIRCULATION COULD MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY.

DUMAKOA HAS THUS LANDED AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. IN
THE EVENTUALITY OF AN OUTFLOW IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SUGGESTED BY
THE LAST NUMERICAL MODELS, THE RISK OF A NEW INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO
BE STILL QUITE MARGINAL, CONSIDERING THE UNCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A MARKED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AFTER
ITS CROSSING OVER MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
THE DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS IN PROGRESS ON
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN, PARTICULARLY
IN THE ZONE IN THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF SAINT MARIE.
1/ HEAVY RAINFALL: 150-250MM ON THE COAST, WHICH MAY EXCEED 300MM ON
THE RELIEF IN 24 HOURS.
2/ STRONG WIND GUSTS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 90 TO 100KM/H.=

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