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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone 12s (dumako) Warning Nr 006// 
Message-ID: <20220215215332.556171C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 21:53:32 +0000
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WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 48.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 48.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 16.8S 46.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 16.6S 43.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 47.8E.
15FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 12S MADE LANDFALL AT 151200Z
AND IS NOW TRACKING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 151541Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING OVER WATER NEAR TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN


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