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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220216001249.ACA151C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 00:12:48 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 160030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/160030Z-161800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 48.4E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 152100) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 72.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 72.0E, APPROXIMATELY 412
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 152114Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30C), AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW
152300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 98.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY
314 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 151218Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151559Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS
AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED 12S WARNING INFORMATION IN
PARA 2.A.(1) AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH. //
NNNN


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